UK Energy Market Update - Prices Stable as Renewables Strengthen and Winter Outlook Improves - 13th October 2025

Mild weather and strong renewables keep energy prices steady

UK wholesale gas and electricity markets remained stable last week, as mild autumn conditions, healthy supply margins, and strong renewable output continued to support a calm trading environment.

Confidence across the energy market has improved further following the release of National Grid’s Winter Outlook, which forecasts the highest generation margin since 2019, signalling minimal risk of supply shortages as the country moves deeper into the colder months.

Electricity Market: Renewables and Imports Maintain System Balance

Wholesale electricity prices were largely unchanged across the week, with day-ahead base-load holding around £80/MWh. Periods of high wind output reduced reliance on gas-fired generation, while interconnectors with France and Norway played an important balancing role during calmer spells.

Key factors shaping the market included:

• Strong wind generation, which consistently met a large share of demand and helped contain prices.

• Gas-fired plants providing flexible backup generation when wind levels dipped.

• Steady nuclear availability, with no major outages disrupting the system.

• National Grid’s Winter Outlook, confirming comfortable margins and further easing supply concerns.

This combination of renewable strength, import stability, and robust system margins contributed to a notably steady week for power markets.

Gas Market: Confidence High as Storage Stays Full

The UK gas market mirrored the power sector’s calm, with the NBP day-ahead price stable at around 80p/therm. Gas prices were supported by strong supply fundamentals and soft demand, while record storage levels across Europe continue to provide a reliable cushion against potential winter volatility.

Key drivers:

• European storage levels above seasonal norms, reinforcing confidence in winter supply resilience.

• Multiple LNG cargo arrivals and consistent regas rates, ensuring strong import capacity.

• Balanced supply and demand, with low volatility throughout the week.

• Mild temperatures, which suppressed heating demand across the UK and northern Europe.

Despite a small uptick in gas-for-power demand midweek, driven by lower wind speeds, overall consumption remained subdued.

Bright Edge View: Calm Conditions Offer a Strategic Opportunity

The UK energy market remains one of the most stable it has been in months, with renewable generation, high storage levels, and mild weather all working in tandem to keep prices contained. However, energy brokers and analysts agree that this calm could shift quickly once colder conditions and higher heating demand arrive later in Q4.

For businesses approaching contract renewal, now is an ideal time to review options. Forward prices are still relatively low, and the market’s soft sentiment offers a chance to lock in favourable rates before the winter season introduces greater volatility.

As an experienced energy broker, Bright Edge continues to help businesses secure the most competitive contracts while managing long-term price risk in an uncertain market.

Let Bright Edge negotiate your business energy rates & see how much you could save

Contact us today to get started